Football-a-Go-Go

Jay Cutler’s gonna stink -- How NCAA accuracy translates to NFL ability.

2006-03-12T19:27:00.000-08:00

In the NFL, a QB has to be accurate. Good NFL QBs were accurate QBs in college. It’s not all about accuracy, but there may be no stronger indicator of future NFL ability (not necessarily “success”) as NCAA accuracy.

More importantly, there is no stronger indicator of future NFL failure as lack of NCAA accuracy.

This is not about what makes a good pro QB. Many things make a good pro QB. But bad NFL QBs share this common thread -- they were not very accurate in college.

NFL scouts continue to be seduced by the “big arm.” Show 100 scouts or coaches a college QB that can throw 100mph with 50% accuracy and I’ll show you 100 scouts or coaches who not only think they can work with that, but lay awake nights dreaming and drooling about a guy like that.

But show those same 100 scouts a QB with 65% accuracy who only throws 50mph, and I’ll show you one – maybe -- who thinks that player should be drafted in the 7th round. Yet recent history shows that the latter QB has a much better chance of contributing something at some point in his NFL career, while the former has a nearly 100% chance of being a complete bust.

There have been accurate college passers that did not make it in the NFL, or had very limited success or short careers, for a variety of reasons. Consider Joe Hamilton from Georgia Tech, who had a very high completion percentage, but was only 5’10” and lacked a strong arm. A strong arm is needed in the NFL, but not only is it not the end-all, it shouldn’t even be the start-all.

The list of accurate-NCAA/average-NFL QB’s is long compared the list of passers that had so-so accuracy in college and went on to have good NFL careers in the last decade.

What is accurate? In college, it’s a completion percentage of 60% or more for two years, or 65% (or close to it) as a senior (or junior if declaring early), with some prior success.

College teams, especially those outside the top ten, can be inconsistent and have the quality of their personnel change rapidly. Since that is true for virtually all teams, little or no judgment is made here about how a QB may have lost his top 3 receivers and the whole starting OL to graduation between his junior and senior years. It’s really not necessary to dig that deep.

The QB’s drafted in 2005 do not have a long enough track record to make meaningful judgments about them, but the 2004 draftees do.

Drafted #1 that year was Eli Manning from Mississippi. A three-year starter, Manning completed 63.5% as a sophomore, 58% as a junior, and 62.4% as a senior. That’s good.

Manning’s completion percentage was solid over an extended period. He has been inconsistent with the Giants, starting slowly as a rookie, starting quickly in his second year before tailing off badly toward the end of that year. The jury is out, and he was probably drafted higher than he should have been because of his name, but Manning was a legitimate prospect who could still achieve a fair level of success in the NFL.

The second QB drafted in 2004 was Philip Rivers. Rivers has had virtually no NFL experience. A four-year starter at NC State, he completed 54%, 63%, 63%, and a whopping 72% in his college career. Of course, he throws sidearm, and may not have quite enough velocity to make all the NFL throws, but he’s got the accuracy.

The next two QB’s taken in 2004 may be the poster boys for this theory. The first, taken at number 11 by the Steelers, was Ben Roethlisberger. Eleven picks later, the Buffalo Bills traded up to take Tulane’s JP Losman.

Roethlisberger was extremely accurate at Miami of Ohio. As a freshman, he completed 66% of his passes. As a sophomore 63%, and as a junior 69%. Roethlisberger then declared for the NFL draft.

One negative cited before he was drafted was that he played at a mid-major program and his competition may have been suspect. Obviously, it didn’t matter, and when you consider other QB’s that have come out of the MAC, it clearly doesn’t matter. Level of competition is probably not a factor until at least the I-AA level.

Roethlisberger has backed up his college numbers by completing 66% and 63% of his passes in two NFL seasons, has played in two AFC title games and won a Super Bowl. And he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

Roethlisberger has a good arm, mechanics, pocket awareness, and intelligence. He has it all, including the necessary accuracy.

JP Losman was drafted 22nd overall by Buffalo. Losman completed 57% as a junior at Tulane, and 60% as a senior. This is below par as an indicator of NFL success. After sitting behind Drew Bledsoe as rookie, Losman completed 49.6% of his passes and was benched twice in his second year.

Since Buffalo’s offense under Mike Mularkey used an exceedingly short passing game, it’s safe to say JP Losman was an unqualified disaster. After watching Losman several times, it’s clear his inaccuracy is not due to inexperience or ability to read defenses.

Losman simply can’t hit a bull in the ass with a banjo.

Why was Losman taken so high? Three reasons: he allegedly has a big arm, he’s mobile, and he was cocky, often being cited prior to the draft as a gunslinger in the Favre mold.

All those things are seductive, and none are indicators of NFL success.

In the 2003 draft, Carson Palmer was taken first overall by Cincinnati. At USC, he completed 55%, 59%, and 63% his final three years, and won the Heisman as a senior. Those numbers are not phenomenal, but the progression is good and he was consistently accurate as a junior and senior.

Palmer was able to sit his entire rookie year, then completed 61% and 68% of his passes and emerged as a star in his third year.

Palmer had the big arm scouts love, but he had the accuracy to go along with it.

Taken 7th overall in 2003 was Marshall’s Byron Leftwich. Leftwich was also a very accurate passer throughout his college career, completing 61%, 67% and 67% his last three years.

Leftwich is established as a reliable NFL starter, as his NCAA accuracy predicted. Many things could keep Leftwich from becoming a star, but his accuracy insures a long career.

Drafted 19th overall in 2003 was another poster child for inaccuracy, Kyle Boller. The Ravens and Brian Billick apparently drafted him because they were enamored with Boller’s ability to kneel and throw 65 yards.

In the NFL, Boller has completed 52%, 56% and 58% of his passes. Given his college career, that level of “success” is actually somewhat shocking. At California, Boller completed 39%, 47%, 39%, and a whopping 53% as a senior.

It’s possible Boller is a QB that can continue growing as QB, but other peripheral numbers, like averaging less than 6 yards per attempt, indicate it still may be a long time before he fully matures. Or, more likely, he will never be accurate enough to be an above-average NFL QB.

Even while inexplicably outperforming his college completion percentage, there was no reason to draft Boller in the first round. Even if his potential is fully realized, it likely won’t be until he’s held back his team(s) for several years and gotten his coaches fired while they waited for him to grow.

The Bears took Rex Grossman 22nd overall in 2003. He’s missed too much time due to injury to make a meaningful judgment of his pro career. He completed 62%, 66% and 57% in three years at Florida, so the potential is there for him to flourish in the NFL.

In 2002, David Carr was taken #1 overall by the Texans. Carr completed 61% and 65% in two years as a starter at Fresno St. That indicates he should have success in the NFL. He hasn’t, but most observers blame his offensive line, which has allowed Carr to be sacked 208 times in four years.

Taken 3rd overall in 2002 was Joe Harrington. I admit I loved Harrington coming out of Oregon. The team was good and he seemed to throw a good deep ball. But here are his college completion percentages: 56%, 53%, and 58%.

Much less than stellar, and that has translated directly to his unimpressive Detroit Lions career.

Patrick Ramsey was the last player taken in the first round in 2002. He’s already gone from QB of Washington’s future to QB of Washington’s past. And it was predictable.

At Tulane, he completed 60%, 59%, and 57% of his passes. That percentage is not terrible, and the end of the first round is really the right place to gamble on a big arm. I don’t think it was a terrible pick by Washington, in fact, it might still be considered a good gamble, even if he does nothing the rest of his career, and likely, he won’t.

The #1 overall pick in 2001 was Michael Vick. In two years, throwing less passes than most college QB’s throw in one, Vick completed 59% and 54% of his passes at Virginia Tech. But Vick is one of a kind. There is no point in debating whether he completes a high enough percentage of his passes because clearly he doesn’t. The debate with Vick is simply whether it matters.

Drew Brees was taken with the first pick in the 2nd round in 2001. He was consistent at Purdue, if slightly underwhelming. He completed 63%, 61%, and 60% in the spread offense. He took a few years to develop, but is now a good – and very accurate—NFL QB.

Brees suffered a serious shoulder injury in the final game of the 2005 season, and despite that some are saying he’ll be fine, I seriously doubt it. Baseball pitchers that suffer torn labrums are never the same, unambiguously. QB’s don’t need to throw fastballs as much as pitchers, but they still need a certain amount of velocity, and I’d wager Brees won’t have it. Labrum injuries are worse than rotator cuff injuries, and…

In 2000, the only QB taken in the first round was Chad Pennington. He was very accurate in college, completing 59%, 65%, and 67% as a three-year starter at Marshall. After sitting for two years, he took over and was productive and accurate for the Jets before also sustaining a serious shoulder injury. Never a fireballer, Pennington had no zip at all in 2005 and could be through as a player.

One other QB of note was drafted in 2000. In the 6th round, New England took Tom Brady. Brady completed 61% in both his junior and senior seasons at Michigan. That alone should have gotten him drafted much higher. He’s also got a strong arm, nice size, etc. I know it’s easy to say it now. But any QB, especially one from a major program, that completes 61% of his passes over two years deserves a long look and higher-than-6th-round draft pick.

1999 is another year that proves this theory in spades.

Taken 1st overall in 1999 was Tim Couch. Couch completed 67% of his passes in his career at Kentucky. He was worthy of the top pick. Things didn’t work out for Couch, but he wasn’t the worst QB ever taken in the first round. His NFL career numbers are below average, but perhaps seem worse because he was the #1 pick in the draft.

Taken 2nd overall by Philadelphia was Donovan McNabb. McNabb completed 58% of his passes at Syracuse where he was a four-year starter, topping out at 61% as a senior. That’s OK, but he had only completed 55% as a junior.

However, McNabb is a very dynamic athlete just like Vick. He’s made highlight reels as much with his feet as his arm – but he’s got a good arm. He’s been a productive passer, but has famously been “less accurate than AndyRied would like.” Consistent accuracy is the one thing lacking from his game.

It’s possible his receivers haven’t helped him in this regard. With Terrell Owens in 2004, McNabb completed 64% of his passes. If McNabb can get close to that figure consistently, he may prove to be the exception to this rule, but how long does it take?

Taken 3rd overall in 1999 was Akili Smith. If not for Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith might be known as the biggest QB bust of all time. In only one year as a full-time starter at Oregon, Smith completed just 58% of his passes. In the NFL, this would be the minimum expected. In the NCAA, it’s really not very good. His inexperience, inaccuracy, and probably several other inabilities, made him a terrible pick at #3 overall and an NFL bust.

At #11 in 1999, the Vikings took Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper was phenomenally accurate at Central Florida. He completed 57%, 60%, 62% and an astounding 74% of his passes in college. Again, it didn’t matter that he didn’t play at a major program. After sitting for a year, Culpepper immediately became a top QB and has never completed less than 61% of his passes in the NFL.

One pick later, the Bears took UCLA’s Cade McNown. McNown completed 50%, 52%, 61% and 58% of his passes in college. In an abbreviated career in Chicago, McNown was a bust and completed only 55% of his passes. McNown had other issues (but not a big arm!), but he may not have been accurate enough anyway.

1998 provided the most dramatic contrast in the relationship between college accuracy and professional success. Their story is well known, but what are rarely, if ever mentioned, are these college completion percentages:

Peyton Manning, Tennessee, 62% 64% 64% 61%.
Ryan Leaf, Washington State, 52%, 56%.

Leaf had numerous issues that led to him being a colossal bust, but maybe he wouldn’t have been such a jerk if he could have completed a higher percentage of passes.

The first round of the 1997 draft produced only Jim Druckenmiller at #26 to San Francisco. He was terrible of course, as his college career could have predicted. He completed only 57% of his passes as a senior at Virginia Tech.

Sixteen picks later, Jake Plummer was taken by Arizona. Plummer took a long time to develop, didn’t have a very strong arm, and was on some bad teams. But as a senior at Arizona State, he completed 73% of his passes.

But the lesson isn’t that Plummer was going to be great, it’s that Druckenmiller (almost certainly) wasn’t.

Finding NCAA statistics from farther back in history got difficult, and at this point isn’t necessary.

There’s just one more QB I’ll mention, a Cowboy of course. Troy Aikman completed 64% and 65% of his passes as junior and senior at UCLA.

In the weeks before this year’s Hall of Fame vote, a Dallas newspaper asked teammates of Aikman’s for anecdotes of what they remembered about him. One player said that he once asked Aikman about his legendary accuracy, and Aikman couldn’t say why he was so accurate. “It’s always been like this,” said Aikman.

Which puts this theory in a nutshell. Accuracy is born, not made. It’s true that young QB’s increase their accuracy in bunches early in their careers (if they start right away). They’re usually lost as rookies and even later. It does take time to learn to read defenses and know where their receivers will be.

But there is a base level of being able to throw a ball to a target that a player either has or doesn’t. If they don’t have it, they won’t be a successful NFL QB.

In the 2006 NFL Draft, three QBs are expected to be taken in the top 10, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler.

Leinart has completed 63%, 65%, and 66% as a three-year starter at USC. Leinart may have shortcomings, but his tremendous accuracy and other positives make him a good bet as one of the top picks in the draft.

Vince Young completed 59% and 65% in his junior and senior years at Texas. There is plenty to be wary about with Vince Young, including whether his completion percentage, which was good, was perhaps artificially high based on the types of throws he made in that offense. But again, that is not the point here. Young is a playmaker, and he’s proven he can be fairly accurate. He should, and will rightly be taken high in the draft. It’s clear though that he’ll need more time in the NFL to achieve success than will Leinart, all other things being equal.

Finally, Jay Cutler has been flying up draft boards based on, apparently, a big arm, and “great” work at the Senior Bowl and the Combine. His “great” Senior Bowl included going 6-19 in the actual game. At Vanderbilt, Cutler completed 49%, 57%, 61%, and 59%.

That’s not horrible, but it’s not good enough. It’s not good enough to indicate he’ll be even moderately successful in the NFL, and it’s far, far from good enough for a team to draft him in the top 10, let alone the top 5.

Jay Cutler is draftable, maybe even late in the first round. And he may not actually suck, after a while. But based on this research he’ll take several years to develop, and more likely, never will.

(Most stats courtesy si.com and may not include bowl games.)

Brush with Greatness: Gary Reasons

2005-12-14T18:47:00.000-08:00

I went to the XML Conference in Atlanta in November. They have this little Expo thing during the conference (a product crap show) and I was just walking around looking for all the free crap I can pick up, like pens, frisbees and whatnot. But for some reason I allowed this one guy to engage me in conversation because he mentioned a phrase we use where I work. So we chatted for 3-4 minutes. We're wrapping it up and this big guy behind him barks, "Andrew!"

Yeah?

"You're from Rochester?"

Yeah.

"They got any Giant fans in Rochester?" (Clueless where this was going, but thankful for manly conversation at a geek convention)

Yeah, but it's mainly Bills territory.

(Sticks his hand out) "Gary Reasons, nice to meet you."

(Gary Reasons!) I played it hot. After a 'Wow, nice to meet you,' he sticks his fist up, "Here, look at this, there's a little bling for you," showing me his Super Bowl XXV ring. I immediately gushed about the play he made during the 1990 season.

Giants fans shouldn't have to ask "which play?" It was The play.

I said I didn't know who the opponent was, but it was the "Superman" play, and recounted it, where he met a ballcarrier going over the top by going over the top himself. The camera behind the offense really captured it well. I was just blabbering on about how I'm a Cowboys fan but that play was great and I always respected the Giants and yada yada yada.

He's just nodding, and then goes, "It was against Denver." He remembers! So I ask if I come back with a camera if I can get a picture with him. He says sure. I go tell the people I was with, who'd never heard of him. Then I go dump my crap haul in my room and go to the gift shop and buy an overpriced camera. I go back up and wait for a break in conversation and ask if we can get the shot.

I give the camera to the guy I was chatting up before, stand next to my good friend Gary, and he says, "Wait a second. I'll go you one better." Reaches into his pocket, and pulls out this little drawstring bag and dumps out two more rings. "Here, put this on. That one's from SuperBowl XXI." (The other ring was his college Hall of Fame ring). While the ring was huge, the size was not. I barely got it on, and my ring size is (I think) 11. Got the picture and thanked him.

The next day we saw him at night in the lobby of the hotel. The people I was with got his autograph and made small talk for a minute. I wanted to ask him something, but didn't know what. I finally came up with this: Tell me something about Bill Parcells that the public doesn't know.

He paused for just a second, repeated the question and said, "He's miserable," really punctuating it. "Football's his whole life. His brother just died. He's divorced. He's got no friends. All he does is coach football." We're all nodding, and he says, "I've gone down and visited him in Dallas and he's practically crying to me across his desk. It's sad."

Wow. Reasons didn't say it casually either. He said it sincerely and somewhat sadly himself.

When Parcells came to Dallas, it seemed like he publicly reconciled his life, admitting that being a football coach was "who he was." But I suppose knowing that and liking or enjoying it aren't the same thing.

And as a practical matter, it makes me think he's not long for the Cowboys.

Sean Salisbury is an idiot

2005-10-16T19:53:00.000-07:00

I didn’t catch the whole thing, but Salisbury was on ESPN News Sunday night saying he couldn’t believe Dallas didn’t take a safety.

This would have been a stupid idea at the time, and in retrospect, it’s lunacy. Dallas recovers a fumble at their own 1-yard line. Two give-up runs and a throwaway and it’s fourth down at the one.

I’m not going to say it didn’t cross my mind to take a safety because it did. But the lead was 7. Making the lead five didn’t make a whole lot of sense. Dallas has already famously given up several long plays this year, so it was far from certain Dallas could make the stop even if they’d gotten off a nice free kick.

And there’s that. A free kick from the 20, unless it gets absolutely boomed, would have been fielded at the 30 or further. Just using averages, if they had netted 40 yards, NY would have had the ball at their own 40.

As it turned out, McBriar had his punt blocked, but this worked out fabulously because the returner was unable to field the punt. With a nice roll, it turned into a clock-eating 51 yard punt. The Giants took over at their own 48. So even if they had taken the safety and the free kick, they would have only been 8 yards better, maybe a little more if the kick and coverage were good.

And two plays later the Giants still would have scored. With the safety, they would have won. I know it’s not really possible to say that the same plays with the same results would have happened if they free kicked (kicked free?). But one way or another, a genius strategy of taking a safety would have bitten Dallas, and Salisbury would have been shouting how stupid it was.

Another win that just shows the hopelessness of it all

2005-10-16T19:50:00.000-07:00

This is turning into the Dallas Cowboys Offensive Line blog. More on that in a minute.

A lot of other stuff happened, like Roy Williams absolutely stinking at a critical time, AGAIN. There was a three-man rush that gave Eli Manning three and a half days to find a receiver, which he did. And there was not going for it on 4th and two inches at the Giants 10 yard line.

Doesn’t that violate many rules, written and unwritten. As ponderous as TMQ is, his “kick early, go for it late” mantra is a pretty fair one. Then there’s the “play for the tie on the road, for the win at home” saying. And maybe it’s just a saying, but it also works.

Yeah, yeah, you should go for the win regardless, but Parcells didn’t even do that. He goes for it at the dumbest times, then two inches from a chance to put the game away (or maybe not), his testicles shrink.

Can anyone tell me how Dallas controls the clock for 40 minutes, and then with the game on the line and the defense well rested, they give up two Giant plays in a row to tie it?

But the main thing that came out of this game is how crappy the OL still is, and it could get very very worse, very very soon. Center Al Johnson had a bad game inside, and it wasn’t just getting called for holding on what would have been a TD.

But worse, Flozell Adams left the game with a sprained knee and did not return. Adams isn’t as good as he should be, but his VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is off the chart. His replacement this day was Torrin Tucker. Surprisingly, Tucker was not a sieve, but I thought it was very strange, and dumb, that NY didn’t bring pressure immediately from his side. That won’t last.

And Tucker wasn’t good, he was just kind of… there. He’s really big, and shows some ability. It just seems like his brain doesn’t tell his feet what to do quite quick enough.

So as hard as I’ve been on the OL, I was reminded how much worse it could be. This OL is so thin, and inconsistent, I don’t see the current pattern of looking very good one game/series/play, and atrocious the next, ending any time this year.

It's not the refs, it's the rules

2005-10-12T17:56:00.000-07:00

During Monday night's game there was a controversial call concerning a muffed fair catch. I didn't see it, but I'd like to comment on it extensively. From listening to honest talk radio, here's what I think I hear happened:

The ball was punted. The receiver signaled for a fair catch. When he tried to catch the ball, it bounced off of him and -- before hitting the ground -- into the hands of a member of the kicking team. Turns out that's not legal, and not only did the receiving team get the ball, the kicking team was penalized.

This was the correct call according to the rules. I discussed this with a good friend of mine who is a high school and collegiate official. He wrote,

The reasoning behind the rule is that (the receiving team) says, "OK - fine. We won't advance it but you gotta stay off me until I cannot possibly catch this thing. That means if I muff it high into the air, you gotta let me continue to try and catch it! I promise I won't advance it. Promise!" K says," fine - but you promise not to advance it if you catch it? OK. But if you drop it and it hits the ground, we're gonna smack you, but good."

It's all a series of trade-offs. They also look at Fair Catch receivers as being especially vulnerable to contact while their attention is focused on the kick, and they wish to protect them.

I still think the kicking team should be able to get the ball before it hits the ground while still making contact with the receiver off limits. But hate the rule, not the rulers. Like my good friend also wrote,

I don't write 'em. I just try to memorize 'em.

It's the OL, stupid

2005-10-09T20:39:00.000-07:00

Early in the game, even while Dallas was building a quick and impressive 17-0 lead, Larry Allen was getting whipped. He was getting beaten on running plays by whoever lined up over him, or who he should have picked up sliding down the line.

Then, something happened. Like he got pissed or something. He started... not just playing, but finishing. He didn't look bored. He didn't look like he was just running drills in practice, he was slugging his guy, he was blocking downfield, and he's the reason they ran the ball so well.

Downfield blocking. I hadn't seen that since, like, the 90's.

Give an assist to Al Johnson too. Johnson might only be average, but mercifully, I never saw Andre Gurode take the field. Petitti was good, and so were Witten and Campbell on both sides.

Now if they can just do it again.

I'd like to prop the D too, but I'm not so sure that were really that impressive. I have no idea why Philly didn't run the ball. Even with the deficit, they had plenty of time to grind out some drives, and the Dallas run D had been questionable. McNabb had a terrible game. Dallas got some pressure, but there were plenty of times where McNabb had time and made some horrible short-hop throws.

Zimmer the mad genius

2005-10-07T09:38:00.000-07:00

It's easy to say right now, but I've never cared for Mike Zimmer.

I was re-watching the Oakland game and twice in the first half DeMarcus Ware, at the snap, took one step over the line and then retreated. Who is he faking?

Number one, this is just wasted motion. Pre-snap, you may give a look, then at the snap do something else in an effort to deceive, but this step over the line is just nonsense. And number two, both plays were running plays. Ware's actions had nothing to do with attacking, or read-and-reacting. He was going through some designed machination that was neither deceptive to the offensive play, nor helpful to stopping it.

The running plays were to the other side, but still, Ware should be crashing down the line or pursuing from the backside. My point isn't that Ware should have made the play, but that it's an example of something else going on besides just stopping a simple play.

I don't have a ready example, but it wouldn't be hard to find one of Greg Ellis being an absolute slave to design, at the expense of actually stopping the play. Tell me you haven't seen this: Ellis rushes upfield and a blitzer or a DT looping or stunting comes through on his inside. The blitzer is invariably picked up, but that's not what I notice about this play. It's that Ellis seems to go upfield and engage the blocker simply because the play is designed "for" the blitzer.

Ellis's action is designed to open the hole for the blitzer. Fair enough. But then Ellis just... stops! It's like it's been drilled into him that he is to engage the tackle while (whatever else) happens. But, shouldn't he pursue too? It seems to be treated like an isolation play.

Since we've got the Eagles coming up, who can forget the Sunday night when they didn't rush McNabb? The pass rush may not have been any good, but this was clearly by design -- Zimmer's design. Perhaps the players weren't smart enough to understand the concept of keeping him contained, but I don't think so. I think Zimmer had this bright idea to make McNabb throw because at the time he wasn't that accurate. Only thing is, he had 5, 6, 7 seconds to do it, and nobody can cover that long, and you don't have to be that accurate to be successful against that kind of scheme.

We certainly seem to be the only team incapable of having a blitzer come in freely (and quickly). I think it's at least in part because Zimmer has 4-5 guys who have some cockamamie "responsibility" or technique they have to maintain, while 1-2 isolated guys are supposed to be coming free. But they aren't.

Still pissed with Payton

2005-10-06T05:40:00.000-07:00

Remember that Dallas was staying in California for the
week between the SF and Oakland games because Parcells
said it would really help the coaches.

So how does de facto Offensive Coordinator Sean
Payton, with all that time to study, come up with that
dog of a game plan for Oakland? The offense looked
completely unprepared for everything Oakland threw at
them.

The receivers didn’t get open.

No matter where Oakland brought pressure from, Dallas
had trouble picking it up.

I still have trouble quantifying this, but the offense
has no rhythm. It just seems like a disjointed bunch
of plays.

Finally, where are the adjustments? Yes, they came
back late in the game, but both big plays Dallas made
were somewhat fluky. The long pass to Glenn came on
what may have been the only play that the Oakland
pressure was picked up, and bombs are fluky by nature.
Most long passes have an element of hope/prayer.

The pass/run to Crayton was about one-third nice pass
play, two-thirds shoddy tackling. And if you didn’t
see it, it wasn’t run of the mill shoddy tackling, it
was epic shoddy tackling.

Shouldn’t Dallas be finding and exposing weaknesses
after halftime? Or, I don’t know, from the opening
kick?

They just stink

2005-10-02T20:33:00.000-07:00

There are probably a hundred reasons Dallas lost. But there’s only one that really matters.

They don’t have “it.’ The stuff. The goods. What it takes.

It’s personified like this:

Larry Allen makes one block and quits. I know I’ve said that so much it’s like a mantra, but against the Raiders it really mattered. Warren Freaking Sapp whipped him. Larry Allen has two techniques. One pop, and if you don’t fall down, he just stops as the defender runs around him. The second technique, which he employed often in Oakland, is to lean on Sapp or whoever, until the defender just sheds or slips off him and proceeds to make the tackle.

Larry Allen is not a champion. He’s a big, fat, guy with enough muscle memory to be marginally effective.

Julius Jones alligator-arms a pass from Keyshawn Johnson because a defender was looming. Jones didn’t look right Sunday. He looked tired, or dinged, or something. I know he did get dinged, but even before that, he seemed to go down rather easily.

But what the hell, Julius? It wasn’t going to be a touchdown, but you have to make that play. The pass was high, but champions make that play.

Drew Bledsoe was under duress all day, but he was hurrying his throws right from the start. He did it all day whether he was being hurried or not, culminating in the final play which he just flipped out to Glenn which gave Glenn no chance to score even if he had caught it.

But it’s not all about heart. Sometimes you’re just not good enough, or you make a mistake, or you’re poorly managed.

On third down, Bledsoe passed incomplete to Keyshawn on a play that even I knew they’d run. But what followed was pure game butchery. Going by memory, that play, which STOPPED THE CLOCK, left about 1:32 to go in the game.

Bledsoe calls timeout.

Not after Sean Payton or Parcells had wasted time shuffling papers on the sideline and were paralyzed by indecision. He called it right away. Three different things are wildly wrong with this.

One, it didn’t occur to them that the 3rd down play might not work? They didn’t have another play lined up? They’re so confused by needing one play to go five yards that they couldn’t decide which one to run?

Two, THEN THEY PICK THAT PLAY? I doubt Glenn would have scored if Bledsoe’s pass was perfect. At best it would have gone to replay, and maybe they would have gotten a first down inside the one.

Three, it was their first time out. How do you take a time out when if you don’t score, you still have a chance to make a stop with all three timeouts? If they make the stop, Oakland punts from the end zone and Dallas has over a minute to probably drive only about 50 yards. Pure butchery. The very definition of “burning a time out.”

The Dallas D looked like they gave up after Oakland took over on downs, and I almost can’t blame them. Their coaches let them down. They put them in position to lose.

You have to run before you can run farther

2005-09-29T20:33:00.000-07:00

Julius Jones is averaging a somewhat paltry 3.5 yards per carry after three games. Doesn’t bother me a bit because it has come on 74 carries. Jones has run pretty well. He’s done no dancing, he’s shown the burst on some nice runs, but the big one just hasn’t been there.

I think I’ve noticed on Tivo that he could have been more patient, or cut some runs to the outside, but that would be nitpicking.

The defenses he’s faced are also fairly stout against the run so far this year. The Chargers, Redskins, and 49ers are giving up 3.6, 2.7, and 3.7 yards per rush respectively. The average defense gives up 3.95 per rush. Dallas is giving up 4.4.

Based on last year, it’s also likely these early opponents have concentrated on stopping Jones, and taking their chances that Bledsoe will beat them. So far, he has, and once the pendumlum swings to take away some of the passing game, the run game should open up.

Tim Cowlishaw of the DMN did point this out after the Washington game, and it irked me too:

Then there's the in-game coaching issue. You have to give Jones relief at some point, but do you bring in Anthony Thomas for an entire possession after a turnover in Redskins territory? That's the time that you ride your best runner, isn't it?

Every week Parcells yammers about needing to give Jones or (insert any player on the roster) a rest. Aw, bullpuckey. Ride your best horse as often as you have to.

Two-point Conversions for Dummies: The Chart

2005-09-28T19:16:00.000-07:00

According to the Cowboys website:

"If the situation were the same, Parcells said he would attempt the two-point conversion in the second quarter again based on the chart he uses."

Chart? OUR coach uses a chart? The future HOFer uses a chart?

The chart is for college coaches like the guy I saw the other night. I don't know his name, but he’s coach of #4 ranked LSU. I know he's just living off what Nick Saban left him, but you think you have to be pretty on-the-ball to be in position to get named head coach of a top college team. LSU picked off Tennessee in the last minute of the game and dude was frantically calling for a timeout on the sideline. The camera went away just as an assistant was intercepting him, almost tackling him, to tell him he didn't need to(, shithead). THAT guy needs a chart.

The most galling thing is that Parcells is always all about the little things. He practices obscure game situations in case they ever happen. Once a season type things. Yet he uses a chart that I have to assume has no consideration for score or game time?

You know what I’d really like to find out? Who wrote the chart. Who was the first dummy, this first math whiz, who put this on paper and then either gave it to someone else, or some other dummy friend said, “hey! Can I get a copy of that chart?!”

Stupidly staying in San Francisco

2005-09-26T18:10:00.000-07:00

Dallas is playing Oakland this week, after playing in San Francisco last week, so the team is staying in California for the whole week. This is Parcells’ stupid idea. His reasoning is that it really helps the coaches. He says they’ll have all the film watched before a plane to Dallas would have even taken off.

Great. I’m sure it also pisses off the players. DallasCowboys.com might only tell us about a select few, like Roy Williams, who are from the area and actually looking forward to being home.

And of course, the philanderers.

But I’m betting most would have preferred to go home and be comfortable with their family, friends, cars, stereos, etc.

Should they play worse because they might be miserable after a few days in a hotel? Probably not. Would it be human to just want to get home, and not practice with full concentration because you were wishing you were someplace else? Probably. But then there’s this from the Dallas Morning News:

Parcells, who coached the New York Giants for nine seasons (1982-90), kept his team on the West Coast in 1984 for a pair of consecutive road playoff games against the Rams and 49ers. Five years later, the Giants stayed the week in Arizona, after playing the Cardinals, before flying up to Los Angeles for a regular-season game with the Rams.
In both scenarios, Parcells' teams went 1-1, losing the second game both times.

It really just isn’t that long of a trip. If the lose, it will probably be because they still can’t defend Randy Moss. If they’re lethargic, it might just be because they had a crappy week of practice with bad attitudes.

Speaking of Moss, I’m sure the wise guys might be looking at how Washington and SF made big giant huge plays in the passing game, and assume the vertical Raiders will do the same. I’m not so sure. If I were a gambler, I’d stay away from this game. The Raiders are dangerous, despite being 0-3, and Dallas hasn’t established that they can beat an inferior team just because. Especially on the road.

Especially at the end of the longest road trip they’ve ever taken.

Good Coach, Bad Manager: Cowboys overcome Parcells' gaffes

2005-09-25T19:01:00.001-07:00

With about five minutes to play in the third quarter, down by five, the Cowboys pulled a quasi-fake punt, essentially going for it on 4th down, AT THEIR OWN 35. This is indefensible.

This is another case of Parcells saying one thing and doing another. To the press, he talks like he’s Mr. Conservative, like he’s all about field position. But he’s actually beyond a gambler, he’s just reckless. The outcome of the 49er drive, a turnover, is irrelevant. Going for it in that situation was ridiculous.

Down 21-12, after missing the extra point after their first TD, the Cowboys went for two, IN THE SECOND QUARTER. That is a no-brainer. The only reasons are mathematical, but you shouldn’t be doing math and chasing points in the 2nd quarter.

Cowboys won, he’ll spin it, it’ll be forgotten. But this was last year all over again. Parcells is a terrible game manager who actively seeks to win or lose games on single decisions, rather than taking a holistic approach to managing the game. That’s right, holistic. Down, distance, score, clock, personnel.

Screen Pass: Still in playbook, still not working

2005-09-25T19:01:00.000-07:00

Don’t be fooled by the big gain Julius Jones made on a screen pass in the first half. It was a combination of him being fast and shifty, and poor tackling by the 49ers. Plus a possible block in the back by Witten. Otherwise, the linemen out in front didn’t block anyone. I backed up the Tivo and laughed. Not only do Dallas OL not block anyone on screen passes, they don’t even touch anyone, unless they run into each other.

Other stuff

2005-09-25T18:59:00.000-07:00

I got really annoyed with Bernie Kukar’s holding signal. He grabs his wrist and kind of shakes it. It’s weird and doesn’t make any sense. It’s like he was making a signal for handcuffing.

DeMarcus Ware was neutralized, one on one. The Redskins Chris Samuels did the job Monday night and against SF it was Jon Jennings. He’s playing the run well, and actually getting closer than Kavika Pittman or Shante Carver ever did, but he’s hasn’t been the game-changer he showed in the preseason.

I also spotted him taking false steps several times. When speed is your game, explosion is everything. And you can’t explode if you’re running in place for even a split second at the snap.

The Cowboys scored a TD on the drive, so here’s another thing that will be forgotten. Terry Glenn caught a long ball and was behind the D when he stopped and put a move on some ghost out there. Who was he juking? It allowed another defender to catch up to him and bring him down. I was apoplectic.

I’m really not disgusted with (the ads for) Family Guy. I’m disgusted that someone must think those ads make me want to watch.

Don’t grill and watch football unless the TV is outside. I paused the Tivo, put some pork chops on the grill, and then came back in and tried to watch a little, then go turn them, then watch a little, etc. It just doesn’t work. Tend to the game, stop the game, or just realize you’ll miss part of it, then tend to the grill. I didn’t make them dull, gray masses of sand, but pork can’t be overcooked, regardless of what Mom always said. Just barely white, even a little pink is fine.

I hate 4 o’clock games.

Trick play timing

2005-09-21T19:23:00.000-07:00

Sean Payton is taking some grief about the playcalling Monday night. Whether it was too conservative is debatable, and if it was, I’d wager it was on orders from Parcells.

But one thing Payton certainly got right was the flea flicker call. It was in the third quarter, and Dallas had been consistently running the ball. They hadn’t had great success with the run, but they stuck with it. Then when they had sufficiently lulled Washington into playing the run, Payton called the flea flicker.

It seems like for the last decade or more, teams ran trick plays early in the game. It makes no sense. Trick plays, like reverses and flea flickers, are predicated not only on deceit, but on the aggression of the opponent.

If you haven’t established the run, why would the defense sell out to stop it, thereby setting up your reverse? Early in the game, the defense is thinking about it. They’re not leg or mind-weary enough to lose discipline.

But later in the game, they might be thinking only about stopping the run while they’re gasping for air. Forget about the backside if they know that must control the front side.

Trick plays can’t just be called. They have to be set up. And Dallas did that right Monday night.

What the hell just happened?

2005-09-19T22:07:00.000-07:00

I blame Roy Williams, though he wasn’t the only one. Bledsoe could have made a pass. Crayton could have held on and gotten the first down. Flozell Adams didn’t have to hold. Jose “The Hook” Cortez could have made that first FG.

But great players make great plays – all of them. Roy Williams made a lot of plays, but he didn’t make the ones he really needed to make. The late ones. The important ones.

He and Aaron Glenn teamed up to allow two long TDs in the last four minutes to lose the game. That’s what it boils down to. Those plays lost the game, and it was Roy Williams who didn’t make them.

There’s not a whole lot else to break down. Two plays. They ruined what could have been a really nice night. If I were to break down a third play, it would be the one where Roy let an INT go through his hands just before the first TD. That was not a tough catch, and he didn't make it.

Sean Payton, who I don’t trust, called a terrific game. I think he kept the Washington defense at bay by attacking the edges early, and using short drops by Bledsoe. Early in the game it was clear they weren’t going to let Bledsoe take deep drops and become a target.

The OL protected well, and the game plan was working. They moved the ball well enough, but couldn’t sustain enough drives.

Every Cowboys fan had to get queasy when they flashed that stat about Parcells being 77-0 when leading by 13 in the 4th quarter. What an idiotic stat to show. But it was shown for a reason – the jinx.

The only other meaningful observation I have is that sideline reporter Sam Ryan looks very, very serious, and has a freakishly large set of lower teeth. I don’t mean the individual teeth are large, but that she’s got a row of about 36 teeth there. She'd have a helluva smile if she wasn't so deadly serious reporting "news" like pulled hammies.

BZZZZ! Star Players and Hall of Famers working the phones

2005-09-19T22:03:00.000-07:00

I hate to be that jackass again, and I’m sure lots of money was raised for hurricane relief, but I’m calling BS on the NFL players and execs working the phones, on several counts.

1 – What was with the phones? My Mom hasn’t had a phone like that since the 80’s. Who would use a phone like that? If it was f’real, they would have had headsets and…

b) – Keyboards. Yeah, right, they were manually filling out these forms. I’m sure that’s a very efficient and accurate way to record the information they were fake-getting over the phones they were trying to hold up to their ears.

III. – Fake filling out the forms. Back in high school I was in some organization that volunteered to work the phones during the Public TV auction or telethon thing they did. We were instructed to make it look like we were all busy. There was about 10 of us, and we got, I don’t remember exactly, about two calls an hour. But when the camera came on, they had this…

(D) – Fake ringer. And when the fake ringer went off, one of us was supposed to pick up our phone and pretend to be taking a pledge. To their credit I suppose, the fake ringer the NFL employed was also from the 80’s to match the phones. It could have been a real “ringy” one from the 70’s. Gifford was clearly faking filling out his form, because he’s older than 80% of the franchises in the NFL and doesn’t understand the concept of making it look good.

Nice enough gesture, but I would have taken their word for it if they just told me there were real players answering the phones.

OK, I wouldn’t have taken their word for it, but this left no doubt.

Hero to Zero: Bledsoe vs. the Washington D

2005-09-15T18:59:00.000-07:00

I’ve got a really bad feeling about Monday night’s game. Like, 7 sacks 3 fumbles bad.

Bledsoe played pretty well against San Diego, but he was sacked four times and fumbled twice, losing one on a botched exchange with the center. San Diego doesn’t have a premier pass rusher and had only 33 sacks last year.

Washington may not have a premier pass rusher either, but they put 8 in the box on every play. Unless…

Unless it’s last year’s Monday night game against Dallas. Dallas came out on their first offensive series with in a four WR set. I understood it, but hated it. The Washington defense doesn’t care about leaving their DB’s in one-on-one coverage because they’re gambling that they can get to your QB first.

Testaverde threw a hurried incompletion and took a sack as Dallas went 3 and out. They tried going 4-wide later in the game with about the same result.

Four WR against an aggressive D can work if you have two things, an accurate QB with a quick release and an OL that can give the QB enough time to let at least one of the receivers get open. It’s possible Bledsoe is the former, but the Cowboys certainly don’t have the latter.

Peter King is a big fat idiot: Week 1

2005-09-12T17:51:00.000-07:00

Pete starts with an open letter to Saints owner Tom Benson. The "open letter" idea is absurd to begin with, but it suits Pete because it makes his plea more melodramatic.

This region needs the Saints, now more than any other time in the 38-year history of the franchise. And the future of this team -- and I would say even this incredibly needy region -- is in your hands as much as any single person in the United States right now.

Absurd. Melodramatic.

You want to know what the displaced people in Houston and Dallas and all over America want to hear right now?

A) "We swung by your house, it's still there!"

2) "You can go home now, here's a first class airline ticket."

iii) "None of the Saints games will be blacked out this year."

None of the above. Apparently Pete thinks the most important thing is for Benson to tell them there's no way he'll pull the Saints out of New Orleans permanently.

I've said for months the specter of the Los Angeles Saints is a great possibility. And maybe before Hurrican Katrina, it would have been understandable for you to make the best deal you could make in a better market. But not now. Not anymore. Now is the time to do the right thing.

By all means Mr. Benson, the right thing to do is stay in a market that only marginally supported your team. Some of the billions (trillions?) in federal aid should go to a new palace for your team. Go get it Mr. Benson, as long as you plan to charge less than $35 to park there.

The people in the shelters all over America will probably never be able to afford a ticket, but really, there's nothing else to do in New Orleans, so pretty please don't go.

Tie of the week

Defensive Player of the Week

(Tie)

This is a recurring theme -- ties. Pete can't make up his mind. There will always be a tie somewhere in his column.

AGGRAVATING/ENJOYABLE TRAVEL NOTE OF THE WEEK

Saturday morning, at the central Jersey rest area with the real Starbucks just off the parking lot, I got fleeced for a triple grande hazelnut latte to the tune of $5.37.

I'm not sure what's more shocking, Pete's willingness to be exploited, or his continuing to complain about it.

I traveled this weekend too, and had a $4 Americano -- in Oxford, NY. That's a two-stoplight town, and they're charging $4 for four shots of espresso, and water. It was like a speed trap. Same day, I got another one in Endwell at a place called Java Joe's. This was one of those trailer/shack places that probably used to be a Fotomat. There the "Americana" was only $2.95, and was surprisingly good. But they didn't have natural sugar, only the processed white sugar. Really, do I deserve to be treated like that, at any price?

Somethingest Something

b. The funniest commercial in recent NFL history is the Burger King spot with the Burger King guy intercepting Drew Bledsoe, taking it to the house and doing the cocky jig in the end zone.

I have to agree somewhat. My son was in the middle of whining about something and the commercial came on. He stopped and watched and laughed about as hard as I've ever seen him laugh. First Coq Roq and now this. The BK folks do have something going with the absurdity.

7. I think most of us owe Gus Frerotte a big apology. We've all pretty much thought of him as a hanger-on without any real upside to help a team except if the starter (and maybe the second-stringer) got hurt. Well, watching a good chunk of Miami's dismantling of Denver, I came to realize that what is good about Frerotte is what's so good about the NFL: Guys who are given up for done don't have to believe they're really done. They can fight their way out of it and still be good if they believe in themselves.

One decent game, which the Miami defense won for the Dolphins, and suddenly Frerotte isn't still a hanger on with zero upside? Frerotte has never changed, only his surroundings have.

Non-Sequitur of the Week

b. Poor Dave Wannstedt.

Why the pity for Wanny? Because Pitt, who played in a BCS bowl last year, with a QB that Pete hailed as a good one, got beat by Ohio? Not Ohio State, just Ohio. Because Wanny's a terrible coach? What...? Why poor Wanny? What's happened to him is HIS FAULT. I didn't see the game, but I saw the clip of Wanny walking off the field. The look on his face was one of severe self-doubt.

Week 1

2005-09-11T19:38:00.000-07:00

Fox: The network of debauchery

As far as I could tell, Fox’s Sunday night lineup, for one night at least, was four shows about about how funny porn is, and at least two of them were animated.

They also had a promo for another show where they show a revolver being fired. No other context, just this scene of someone firing a gun.

Number one – does anyone even use a revolver any more?

And first of all, did hundreds of American viewers go, “whoo! Someone’s going to fire a revolver on that show! I’m going to watch that one!” The only reason I would tune in for that is if it were a reality show and Joe Buck were the one being fired upon. I think I’d rather listen to incompetence that his smarminess.

Rating the Uniforms

Cardinals – Thumbs down. I don’t hate them, but I think just red sleeves on the white jersey would look better. I don’t like the whole red shoulders. The new Cardinal looks like he just woke up.

Bills – Thumbs way up. I really like the color of blue in those “throwback” uniforms, and proof that it’s a quality uniform is that, other than the helmet, the uniform didn’t look like a throwback. It looks as good today as it did in 1965, and is in sharp contrast to the garish, 16-color pallette of their “modern” uniforms.

Lions – Neutral. I’m not sure they’re new, but black is so 1980’s. But they put enough blue and silver in the sleeves and numbers that it doesn’t look so black.

Predictive moment? The goal line stand

In the last two minutes of the game, Dallas dominated SD on 7 of 8 plays. The only successful Chargers play was a Hail Mary type throw when Dallas sent 8 rushers at Drew Brees. They made quality plays when they needed to, a welcome change after last year’s Murphy’s Law defense.

They were solid against the run, but I’m not sure I’d be happy about the playcalling if I were a Chargers fan. They had first and goal and a timeout with over 30 seconds left. They passed all four times. I think one of those downs I would have wanted to see the ball in Tomlinson’s hands.

Offense sputters way to 28 points

Shouldn’t I be happy with 28 points, 96 yards from Julius Jones, 18/24 passing for a bunch of yards from Bledsoe, and the emergence of Patrick Crayton?

Well, I am, with all that.

But, first, somebody erase the screen from the playbook. It will never, ever work. Never.

I would dismiss three straight penalties after getting a first down, but I don’t think it was an aberration.

Bledsoe got hit a lot, and several of his completions came rightbefore he got hit. Another split second and he would have had five fumbles instead of two.

It seemed like Sean Payton forgot about the run for a stretch in the 3rd and 4th quarters, but remembered it just in time on the game winning drive.

Oh yeahhhh! This Kool-Aid tastes funny

2005-09-07T18:45:00.000-07:00

I was going to review the last preseason column of TMQ, but it’s not interesting enough to comment on. Dude gives his “predictions” for each team in haiku.

Thirty-two freaking haikus. And that’s only about one-fourth of the column. He drones on and on about Star Trek or Star Wars or something. Ponderous.

He also agreed with a reader about something that happened in the Syracuse game. The reader says there was a reverse and the announcers called it a “double reverse.” Except, it really was a double reverse, if memory serves. It was one of several dozen plays that didn’t work for the Orange.

Instead I’m going to admit that I’m optimistic about the Cowboys. I’ve been pretty hard on the OL. But I keep going over the roster and thinking about what I’ve seen from the team in the preseason, and the OL ends up the only question mark, and they finished pretty well.

Bledsoe is probably the next biggest question mark. But it’s not like he’s never done anything. He’s durable, so taking a lot of sacks doesn’t worry me as far as his health. If he’s bad, he’ll probably still be functional, especially against lesser opponents. If he’s good, he could be really good.

And he’s got a lot of weapons. Julius Jones is the real deal. A fast, powerful, every down back. TE Jason Witten caught 87 passes last year. Keyshawn Johnson is a solid player. Terry Glenn, a spectacular, if fragile, deep threat. Peerless Price caught 92 balls from Bledsoe three years ago. Patrick Crayton might be as good a 4th WR any team has this year.

Those aren’t just competent players, there’s a couple stars and a couple more near-stars in there. Even the backup RB’s look good.

On defense, the biggest question is the LBs. Dat Nguyen is over rated. Bradie James looks like a stiff. Al Singleton is JAG (just a guy). But rookie OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Kevin Burnett flashed playmaking ability in the preseason. If they can learn to be in the right place and play the run and pass, they should be OK.

The line is the best it’s been in a decade. Jason Ferguson only played a handful of plays, but I’ve seen him play for the Jets so I’m not worried. LaRoi Glover is serviceable as his backup at NT. Greg Ellis is limited, but has a good motor. Ken Coleman is JAG. But the rookies, four of them, all showed ability in the preseason.

Chris Canty, Jay Ratliff, Thomas Johnson, and Marcus Spears all played well. It’s obviously hard to say in the preseason, but none were overmatched and all consistently won their individual battles with opposing OL. Spears missed most of the preseason except for the last game against Jacksonville, but was outstanding in that game. Even though he was a first round pick, he’s kind of a sleeper because he’s been out.

The corners are also as good as they’ve been in several years. Finally, SS Roy Williams is playing where he should, and FS Keith Davis looks better than A Tony Dixon or A Lynn Scott or whoever Dallas has tried back there recently.

So I see all this improvement, and what am I supposed to think? What, 7-9? I don’t think so. 10-6 is probably a reasonable guess. Nine wins wouldn’t be disappointing considering the youth in some places and the age of Bledsoe. Eleven wins would be a surprise.

Peter King is a big fat idiot: Preseason

2005-09-05T19:57:00.000-07:00

If you don't read si.com's Peter King every Monday (and mailbag on Tuesday), I highly recommend you don't start. I can't stop, so every week I'll bring you some of his best hypocrisy and superficial analysis. Feel free to add your own.

I am going to go ahead -- foolishly, I know -- and predict the order of finish for NFL teams this year, but not for a few paragraphs. I mean, to focus on football at a time like this feels almost sinful, sort of Sodom-and-Gomorrahesque.

Sodom and Gomorrahesque? What? How the…? Right, nevermind, it’s just like Sodom and Gomorrah. I think Pete wants a re-write here, because I can see the New Orleans-as-Sodom angle, but not the writing about football being like Sodom or Gomorrah.

But really, it’s not foolish to write about football. I probably couldn’t word it without sounding like an insensitive jackass, but I’ve been going to my job every day, why shouldn’t Pete?

See? Insensitive jackass.

Pete goes on to talk about how he talked to a Saints PR guy, and Patriots owner Bob Kraft. Mundane, and surprisingly un-weepy, coming from Capt. Bleeding Heart. I’m not minimizing the tragedy, but Pete gets choked up when football players retire. So for him to just report what a couple NFL people think about it and move on is surprising.

I struggle to know if focusing on football is the right thing to do right now. The other day, I heard a debate on ESPN Radio in New York about whether the Giants were getting an unfair advantage in the schedule by playing a ninth home game at the expense of the Saints, with the league moving the Week Two game to the Meadowlands. My blood boiled. Are you kidding? What kind of idiot would think of that at a time like this? Thousands lay dying and someone would think about the advantage of playing nine home games instead of eight in a freakin' football league?

Pete’s blood is boiling? Of course ESPN Radio IN NEW YORK, should be all tragedy all the time until all the dying are dead or alive as all hell.

I’ve broken this up with my comments, but if you didn’t read it, know that what follows comes right after Pete’s boiling blood.

God give me the strength to have some perspective over the next six months. Please. And so I guess the best thing to do is to do what I do -- make bad predictions and comment on the state of affairs in the NFL.

Ow! Ow! My blood! Hot! Hot! Hot!

Pete’s picks aren’t really interesting, just like anyone else’s. I used to think I knew a lot about the whole league, and my picks weren’t real hot. Now that I probably couldn’t name all 31 teams on a bet(that was a joke, and so was that), I won’t be making picks, nor making fun of anyone else’s, unless they use faulty logic, or I have some knowledge of the team involved.

Now for this week’s Somethingest Something:

NFC East: Philadelphia, Dallas, New York Giants, Washington. The Eagles have to be the deepest team of our time,

Just what is “our time?”

Drew Bledsoe's going to be better than people think -- good enough to get the Cowboys to the playoffs.

Eh. Shrug.

Offensive Rookie
2. Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay. I've got to think he'll gain the most yards of the three top backs.

Small, reminds me of Blair Thomas. Could be a Warrick Dunn-type – fast, playmaking, but not a 25-carry a week guy. But I think he’ll be even less than a poor man's Warwick Dunn.

Defensive Rookie
1. Derrick Johnson, LB, Kansas City. I've seen him practice twice and he has the best speed for a linebacker I've seen since Lawrence Taylor. I think he's going to be not good, but great.

I don’t think he’s physical enough. At Texas, his speed made up for being a guy who just chased plays. In the NFL, he’ll be expected to be in position. He has the physical ability, but I’m dubious.

Pete had several paragraphs about pass routes in a play call:

I asked Jedd Fisch, the precocious young offensive assistant working at the right hand of Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Fassel, to go through the numbering system for me. What each number means:
1. Flat route out of the backfield.
2. Five-yard slant.
3. Ten- to 12-yard square-out.
4. Fifteen-yard in-cut.
5. Eighteen-yard comeback.
6. Twelve-yard curl.
7. Twelve-yard corner (receiver breaks at 12 yards and heads for goal-line pylon).
8. Twelve-yard post (receiver breaks at 12 yards and heads for goalpost).
9. Go.

Let's say there's a standard two-wide, one-tight-end formation on the field, with one wideout spread left, the tight end next to the right tackle and the other wideout spread right. If the quarterback calls a play that includes "329,'' it means the wieout split left runs a 10- to-12-yard squareout, the tight end runs a five-yard slant back across the formation and the wideout split right tries to jiggle then speed past coverage by sprinting straight downfield.

I found this interesting. Not useful, because we don’t hear the play calls, but interesting, and shocking to find in a Pete King column.

1. I think the Dallas defense is going to be good enough to put a scare into the Eagles.

That’s nice. I’m hopeful too.

7. But when Rice decided he'd accept any role so he could play one more year of the game he loved, Shanahan aggressively pursued him. "He's right,'' Rice said. "I'm not saying I'm complacent now, because I'm not. I'm still competitive. But I don't have to catch 12 balls a game to feel I'm doing my part. This is the right time to be here. I want to play whatever role Mike has for me, teach these guys what I can, and pass the torch to the next generation.'' If he plays, it tells me he meant what he said during camp.

Jerry Rice has always been about Jerry Rice. And now I have to read for a week how great – and classy – he was. There’s nothing wrong with wanting the ball, my gripe is how some of these guys, like Rice and Cris Carter, are portrayed as “classy” and “team” players, when really… they just want the ball.

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:
a. I still can't fathom how, with that pitching staff, the Red Sox are four up on the Yanks in the loss column with four weeks to go.

Ow! Ow! His first non-football thought is not about New Orleans?! That coldhearted sonofabitch!

b. Saw The Constant Gardener. Really, really good. Taut. Exciting. Mysterious. Just what a movie should be.

Never… Ow! My blood! Ow! OOOWWWW! Never heard of it!

d. Coffeenerdness: Just a question for you at the Mobil stations along the Merritt Parkway in Connecticut: Do you really sell that sick-smelling Pumpkin Spice coffee? I mean, who buys it?

Oh man, you should see the death vein in the middle of my forehead. How dare Pete put in regular features like Coffeenerdness when people are dead and dying?

Si.com's Doc Z says 10-6 for Dallas

2005-09-01T10:52:00.000-07:00

I didn't read his whole picks explanation, number one, because it took me so long to copy it into a text editor because of each division being on a separate page. That, making single items into multi-pages so we can presumably see more ads, may be the beginning of the end of this internet craze.

2. COWBOYS (10-6 (and wildcard))
In 2004 Vinny Testaverde was sacked 34 times. That's a good statistic, because the number is right around the league average and Vinny, as we know, was a lot slower than the average quarterback. Can the line set up a wall for Drew Bledsoe, who likes to hold the ball? I think so, and that, of course, is the issue, because the Cowboys' defense will be active and opportunistic and will force turnovers.

We know that Vin was a lot slower than average? I bet he wasn't, by any measure you can take.

He thinks the line can set up a wall for Bledsoe? Based on what? I guess with 32 teams to write about, this kind of superficial analysis should be expected. I'm not going to say he's wrong, but he doesn't... know. He can't know. They have possibly three new starters, and the only clear presumed upgrade (Marco Riviera at RG) had back surgery in the offseason and didn't look real good to me in the one game he played, and hasn't played the last two preseason games because of a hammy.

But finally, this is a straight up crock: "The defense will be active" -- I'd take him to task just for saying that. I mean, if I said that, what would he say? "I doubt the whole defense would be inactive on game day, so you're probably right." But the "and force turnovers"? He must have seen DeMarcus Ware's good game against Seattle, because Dallas hasn't forced turnovers since the mid-90's. They're switching from 4-3 to 3-4, and will have some new starters, but I think they're going to have to prove they'll force turnovers before being expected to.

Interest in Peer Price

2005-08-31T18:07:00.000-07:00

Dallas is looking into signing Peerless Price, according to their website.

Jerry Jones says they're looking into it, Parcells says he thinks Price is a pretty good player, but no visit is planned, and they would have to visit in order to sign him according to Jones.

Translation: Price thinks he can still get a lot of money, more than Dallas is willing to pay. If Price can't find the dough in the next couple days, Jones wants Price to call him.

At the right price, Price could be a nice pickup. He might be a malcontent, he might think he's better than he really is, I don't know. I know Mike Vick hasn't been a consistent passer, so Price could have a big year with the right team. A team willing to make him part of the offense, and throw him the ball down the field. I think Dallas would do that, but I think somebody will pay Price more than Dallas is willing to.

The myth of the change of pace back

2005-08-31T18:05:00.000-07:00

Hot position battle #2 is the backup RB. Julius Jones looks like a star. Regardless of any promise the backup candidates have shown, it probably doesn’t matter. Any of them might be serviceable. But I’m afraid if Julius goes down, Parcells will play his “I can’t trust these guys” card and have Bledsoe throw too much. Like last year.

Parcells has stated a desire for a “change of pace back.” Probably because “change of pace back” has become a cliché, and the media loves the idea. Let’s see, Julius Jones is fast and powerful. What exactly is the change of pace from that? Do we really need a slow runner that can’t break tackles?

A less obvious variation that means the same thing is “complimentary.” We need a back to complement the starting tailback. Unless this means a back that tells the starter he’s a handsome man every day, I don’t get the need, if you have a back that pretty much does it all.

Emmitt was fast, powerful, and could catch. What’s his ideal backup? I’m asking, for real. There is a right answer.

The right answer to complement Emmitt was… another fast, powerful back that could catch. They never really had one of any lasting quality. Chris Warren was probably the best of the backups during Emmitt’s time. Otherwise it was the plodding Lincoln Kennedy or quick, small, drugged out Sherman Williams.

Thankfully, Parcells has also said that when it comes to Julius’s backup, he has to look at “what if Julius goes down?” If you’ve got a change of pace guy, who probably is one-dimensional, that becomes the pace, and you’re back to looking for someone who can do it all, or at least do most things well.

Finally, Parcells wants backups that contribute on special teams. So, he wants a change of pace back that can fill in for Julius for an extended period if needed and plays special teams.

The Canidates:

Tony Thomas looks kind of plodding. Not Ed George plodding, but, umm, Ed George plodding when Ed was good. He wasn’t paid a fortune to come to Dallas, so I don’t think he’ll stick just because he was a free agent signee. Like in Chicago, he seems to have gotten the “can’t catch” label. But as far as I know, he hasn’t been a fumbler.

Marion Barber III fumbled in a game, and drew Parcells’ wrath for fumbling twice during camp. He missed the Houston game with a foot infection. He hasn’t looked special, but hasn’t looked bad at all. He was a 4th round pick, though that may have been too high, and I think if he were cut, he’d have good chance to clear waivers and be signed to the practice squad, but I kind of doubt they’ll do that.

Tyson Thompson was undrafted, but has been the most impressive of the three. He’s shown blazing speed and against Houston he was a willing inside runner.

I think they keep all three, and FB Lousaka Polite. I think the noise about keeping four TE’s is just that, noise. None but Witten have caught a pass, and either Sean Ryan or Brett Pierce would likely clear and make the practice squad. I’d rather risk losing one of them than one of the RB’s.

Who’s the backup? Who cares. It’s the starter, stupid

2005-08-30T18:54:00.000-07:00

Yawn. Dallas beat Houston 21-9 a few days ago. The offense looked inconsistent, the defense didn’t look as good as Houston’s offense looked bad. Tell me again why Dave Carr is the Next Big Thing? He had a couple passes dropped, but he wasn’t sharp, especially on anything over five yards. It was only half a game, but it was a pretty lousy half.

But in Dallas, the rage in the press, fueled I suppose by the Cowboys website, are these HOT position battles. The most important thing in the world is apparently who will back up Drew Bledsoe.

Actually, it’s not even that. It’s that Tony Romo is the backup, but Parcells refuses to say it. It’s as if when, or if ever, Bill Parcells says, “Tony Romo is the #2,” church bells will ring and regular programming will be interrupted to report the non-news.

Cowboys Roundup has this covered, and so did I a while back. Bledsoe will play until he has a debilitating injury or the end of the season. So how’s he looking?

Not real good. Better with each week though, and I can only hope the passing game has been conservative by design. I think it has, based mostly on the lack of balls thrown Keyshawn’s way. I really don’t think they’ve worked the middle of the field or the bread and butter intermediate routes.

Instead we’ve been treated to a steady diet of the impossible screen pass, and short stuff to Witten. All the QB’s have found Patrick Crayton down the field.

Point is I have no idea how Bledsoe’s doing. The OL was pitiful against Arizona and he had no chance. He was pedestrian against Seattle. And his final numbers against Houston were solid, though a lot of it came on one 80-yard drive. If the offense has been limited, I’d grade him a B. If they’ve really been trying, a C.

SI's Don Banks hates fantasy football, I don't

2005-08-25T18:33:00.000-07:00

I stopped playing fantasy football about 10 years ago, but I'm still a consultant. I like fantasy football, but stopped having my own team because I couldn't stand rooting for players on other teams, or rooting for a TD pass instead of a run, or having a starting receiver scratch at game time and have his backup catch 332 yards worth of passes while on my bench.

But playing fantasy football was interesting, and really helped me gain knowledge of players across the NFL. It made me watch young players and college players more closely, and understand why a guy might be a fraud or a gem down the road.

SI's Don Banks detests the fantasy football "craze." Calling it a craze is strike one against his argument. A craze is a "short lived popular fashion; a fad" according to the dictionary. Since I was playing in the late 80's I hardly think it's a craze.

Here are Banks's top ten reasons he's not a fantasy guy, and my responses:

1. It changes how you watch a game.

I'll buy that. He equates this with bettors, who don't care about a win, but a win by how much. I admit that if I had Troy Aikman and Dallas won but he threw 0 TD's while Emmitt ran for four, the victory was bittersweet.

2. It glorifies stat accumulators at the expense of team players

Well, duh. And so what? And, I'm not even sure that's correct. It may glorify a guy with stats, but it's at no one's expense. It's in isolation. If a QB plays for a team with a porous OL, or no running game, or no receivers, the fantasy player is probably keenly aware.

3. It makes heroes out of problem children.

I could go on a long time with this one. I don't know about "heroes" but I think the fact that guys like Randy Moss get picked high shows that the vast majority of fans really don't give a damn what these guys do off the field. The media cares if Moss smokes dope. For the most part, fantasy players and fans in general don't.

4. The geek factor.

I don't buy this at all. Is there a geek factor? Maybe. But football stats, unlike baseball stats, especially nouveau geek baseball stats, like DIPS or VORP or Win Shares, are much more straightforward. Even the straightforward baseball stats are unlike football stats. A .300 hitter who doesn't hit homers, steal bases or drive in runs is not very good, but a 1,000 yard rusher, even one that doesn't score has value, and his value is easily understood.

5. The death of the NFL offseason.

This is filler to fill out his list of 10. The draft, free agency calendar, and overall popularity of the game make the NFL offseason short or nonexistent.

6. It's ridiculously and unfairly skewered toward offense and touchdown-makers.

The fantasy leagues I played in accounted for defense and special teams. Too heavily in one case.

7. All those confusing and divided loyalties.

This did queer it for me. The worst situation was when a rival team would score a TD to beat the Cowboys, but it would be the wrong player. Like, I might have Rodney Hampton on my team, but Simms would hit Bavaro for the gamewinner and I'd be doubly screwed.

8. The expert phenomena.

"Fantasy football transforms average fans into quasi-general managers..." I hate this argument. We're just fans, so we don't... know. Fantasy players can become experts in whether the players on their favorite team are really any good or not. Not all great players put up the best stats, but fantasy football can cause you to watch a player with a more critical eye. It causes you to look critically at matchups.

I think fantasy players may be the only one who understand why two different coaches took Barry Sanders out in goal line situations. It wasn't because he couldn't score TD's, it was because his running style did not lend itself to compressed field situations. Sanders would rather lose four yards trying to gain 10 than just put his head down and gain three and , you know, score.

9. The money aspect.

Never played in a money league. Banks thinks it might corrupt the game. Far-fetched; specious. This is more filler.

10. The trendiness of it all.

If Banks had written this in 1995, when I stopped playing, it might make sense. Fantasy football is almost venerable, and can it really be "trendy" if there is absolutely no sign of a downward trend?

Offense: Stinks less like cat box

2005-08-23T19:40:00.000-07:00

And more like fresh garbage. Garbage stinks, but you still don’t take it out until the bag is full. It’s a tolerable stink.

The OL was sub par, but that’s a step up from the Arizona game. Rookie RT Rob Petitti was not a statue. He might be OK with help and a couple more weeks of practice. C Al Johnson has one gear, reverse, but at least he sticks with his blocks until the play is over, unlike his competitor for the starting job, Andre Gurode. Johnson is not good, but he’s better than Gurode. Larry Allen and Flo Adams were OK.

Bledsoe was not good, but again this is a non-issue. Bledsoe is the QB, and he will be all year. He got a lot more time in the pocket this week but still didn’t do much with it, and even scrambled a couple times. One time he put his head down and made a diving attempt at the first down marker. He didn’t make it and took a hit. Ordinarily I’d admire that, but he looked like a giraffe on roller skates doing it.

Julius Jones looked great. He won’t need much daylight to make things happen. A threat every time he touches the ball.

WR Terry Glenn has been invisible, and apparently Keyshawn has never been a big preseason player. Third WR appears to have been locked up by Patrick Crayton, and he looks solid. Along with Witten, the receivers are a good group.

This could be a frustrating unit. Good enough to win most games, but the line and QB are so far below elite that they’ll always lose to the good teams.

Defense: Curbing my enthusiasm

2005-08-23T19:39:00.000-07:00

My enthusiasm has a pretty good governor anyway, but I have to put a little extra effort into not getting excited about DE/OLB DeMarcus Ware.

Sack, forced fumble, recovered fumble, plays the run well, runs across the field and makes an INT, forces another fumble, gets Parcells water.

But like Parcells said, don’t put him in Canton yet.

He was a force. Now do it again. And in the regular season. And more consistently. Ware played a lot, but in the 2nd half he didn’t really do anything.

It’s been a while since Dallas has had a guy who could rush the passer on his own. If he can do that, he’ll make a lot of the guys around him look better.

So will NT Jason Ferguson, who was not in the lineup again. It’s not saying much, er, it’s not saying anything really, but the D looks like it could be a lot better than last year.

That would be due to the front 7, because Matt Hasselbeck consistently found open receivers, completing 80% of his passes for substantial yardage. I hope that the PR from the Cowboys is right. They say it’s the learning curve of the new defense and/or the preseason is when these things get worked out. That’s plausible. I’d feel better if it were Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper lighting them up instead of Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck, but I’m hopeful.

Looking forward to a pasting

2005-08-21T19:32:00.000-07:00

No, not of the Cowboys, by the Cowboys. What? Where my negativity at?

Seattle, last I knew, was a sieve on defense, and a perenially inconsistent tease on offense.

The buzz says Dallas is going to have a game plan this time, after not having one for Arizona.

Julius Jones ran for, I don’t know, almost 200 yards against them last year.

The less worse of the two Cowboys’ centers, Al Johnson, will be starting.

Ty Walter, an underrated plugger, will start at RG, and rookie RT Rob Petitti can’t possibly be as bad as he was against Arizona.

It’s Monday Night Football, so maybe even Adams and Allen show up like it’s a real game. They’ll probably wager who John Madden will talk about more, so they’ll be actively trying to bury their opponent.

I hoped Jason Ferguson would be starting at NT, but he’s still out with an ankle. Still, Dallas did a nice job against the run in Arizona, and there’s no reason to think the D will regress off that effort. It’s just Matt Hasslebeck.

So I expect Dallas to score a couple times with the first team in there, and another couple times after that.

Check out Seattle backup QB Seneca Wallace. I saw a Seattle preseason game last year and he really impressed me. He has a freakishly quick drop, and I think their offense really suits him.

Boulware a gamble Cowboys should have taken?

2005-08-18T19:49:00.000-07:00

Maybe Jerry Jones is five times bitten, six times shy. Maybe they've been burned too many times before trying to re-catch lightning in a bottle.

Dallas signed Marcellus Wiley last year to rush the passer and he was an epic bust.

They've drafted pass rushers early, like Kavika Pittman and Shante Carver, and the only people who've ever even heard of those two are Cowboys fans. They tried Broderick Thomas, and he wasn't a horrible player, but had little impact on the pass rush.

They hoped Kevin Hardy had something left in the tank after major knee surgery, but he didn't.

So after missing all of 2004 with knee and toe injuries, and being 30 years old, Dallas (and every other team) passed on LB Peter Boulware. Boulware just re-signed with the Ravens who cut him last spring for salary cap reasons.

According to si.com, "The contract was expected to be a one-year deal worth $1 million with an additional $1 million in incentives."

That, and more, is well within the Cowboys' budget, and may have been a good gamble. Boulware was a good player. He was surrounded by other good players but was capable of making big plays on his own. He had 10 or more sacks three times in seven years, something Dallas hasn't had in nearly a decade. He's forced 13 fumbles in his career. The turnover starved Cowboys could use such impact.

With the switch to the 3-4, he could have been a nice fit as a backup and mentor to DeMarcus Ware, and a good insurance policy if Ware were injured.

It's hindsight, and I'm not beating up the org for not signing him, but at the price he got from Baltimore, I would have been pleased to have him be a Cowboy.

Deep and talented: Running back

2005-08-17T19:37:00.000-07:00

I don’t play fantasy football, but I did look at ESPN’s fantasy draft results for leagues that have already held their draft. Julius Jones’s average draft spot is 21st.

Shrug.

I guess that’s about right. He had a great 7 games to finish last season, but he’s unproven, and the Dallas offense is questionable.

But what’s not right is that Lions RB Kevin Jones average draft spot is 8th, and Will McGahee’s average spot is 12th. What do those two players, and their teams, have going for them that Juli Jones does not?

Julius is good. Fast and powerful. I have high expectations for him this season.

How many other RB’s Dallas keeps, and which ones, hasn’t been decided. If they keep a fullback, it will only be one, and it’s really inconsequential which one as they run out of a one-back set a lot, or motion the TE into the backfield to block.

Dallas did waste a draft pick on Marion Barber III. Barber looked OK against Arizona and the reports from camp are mixed but generally favorable. But it was a wasted pick because he doesn’t seem to be an upgrade over ReShard Lee, who Dallas cut this offseason. Lee got in Parcells’ dog hotel and couldn’t get out, no matter how many yards per carry he averaged.

The rage of camp is undrafted free agent Tyson Thompson. Thompson showed off his blazing speed by repeatedly getting to and turning the corner against Arizona‘s 3rd team defense. He looked like he had some skeels and appears to be a lock to make the team.

The last candidate is Anthony Thomas, formerly of the Bears. Thomas has experience and has rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season. He didn’t play much against Arizona, but looked like the 4th best back on the squad.

If something happens to Jones this year, Dallas is in a much better position to still have a viable running game than they were last year when they had decrepit Ed George for half the season.

Kidding themselves

2005-08-15T19:38:00.000-07:00

This weeks lies, damn lies, and statistics.

"A couple of times, I was able to get to my No. 4 progression and I didn't have anybody open," said Bledsoe, who was sacked twice and fumbled.

Romo replaced Bledsoe and completed his first five passes. The numbers don’t tell the story though. The most striking thing was how fast Romo got the ball out, relative to Bledsoe. Romo didn’t seem to have problem finding his #1 progression, usually Witten, and even when Witten was covered.

"We wanted to get this running game going," said Bledsoe

They ran 6 times while Bledsoe was in. Bledsoe threw 8 passes and was sacked twice for a total of 10 passing plays.

"When we get into a game like that, where the defense puts eight men in the box and put our receivers into one-on-one matchups outside, you can expect us to be on the attack," Bledsoe said.

Six, seven, eight in the box, it didn’t matter. Bledsoe got nothing going. Of the 18 plays for the first team offense, the Cardinals put 8 men in the box on 4 of them. One was on 3^rd and short, two others were runs, and on the one pass play when Arizona put 8 in the box, Bledsoe was immediately sacked and fumbled after a five step drop.

Don’t blame some phantom 8-in-the-box defense for your crappy play.

Finally, Mick Spagnola, from Cowboys PR:

There are a few things you must understand. For a first preseason game, the Cardinals sure did a lot of blitzing.

Define a lot. Three times they blitzed, twice Dallas ran, and the third time they had a screen on, which lost yardage not because of the bltiz, but because the Dallas OL is incapable of successfully executing a screen.

Offense: Anybody got a play for 3rd and 50?

2005-08-14T18:51:00.000-07:00

Off. Bad. Sour. Stale. Rotten.

Past its sell-by date.

All synonyms for rancid, which is the first word I’d use to describe the Cowboys effort against Arizona. The Cowboys have gone bad, and they’re not coming back.

I’m sure this corpse can be prettied up and made so the smell can’t immediately be detected. Weaknesses will be covered up or schemed around. They’ll win some games. They have a few superior players.

Julius Jones. Jason Witten. Mat McBriar.

McBriar’s the punter, by the way. Damn fine one, too.

But this squad is bad where it really matters – the line.

Again, Andre Gurode. Parcells must have moved him to Center to just give him one last chance. He was a bad RG. He was terrible at C last night.

I’m watching with Tivo, and I’m replaying every play 2-3 times, and I can sense my wife is about to give me the, “are you going to watch the whole game this way?” With the perfunctory eye roll and/or groan.

Instead, she gave me, “you really like Tivo don’t you?”

Right then, Gurode tackles a guy and I say, “that’s going to be holding, number 65.” Mike Carey says those same words and I tell her I didn’t even need Tivo for that one.

Thing is, Gurode wasn’t even the worst OL in the game last night. That had to be RT Torrin Tucker, who somehow started 13 games last year.

In case anyone thinks I was joking about 3^rd and 50, check this series of plays after the Cowboys actually got something going, and had 1^st and 10 at the Cardinal 15 early in the second half:

Holding by Tucker. 1^st and 20.

Holding by Tucker. 1^st and 30.

Run for minus 4. 2^nd and 34.

Run for minus 1. 3^rd and 35

False start by Crayton. 3^rd and 40

Holding by Peterman. 3^rd and 50

Meaningless preseason? Meaningless 2^nd/3^rd team results? I’d hang on to that if the 1^st team had done anything. But they netted 12 yards their first five series.

Larry Allen makes one block and quits. Marco Rivera was not bad, but not really good either. They have no Center. After they mercifully got Gurode out of the game, Al Johnson was flattened on one play where he was pulling. Even the Cowboys announcers said he got creamed. They started a rookie at RT, and he played awful.

Flozell Adams wasn’t horrible.

The OL is full of average to downright bad players. There will be no turnaround for this group. Even the players with some talent, like Allen and Adams, are either unmotivated, over-the-hill or otherwise disinterested. They are past their sell-by date.

Hard to say about Rivera. He wasn’t a turnstyle, but he didn’t show much either.

After that, there is a steep drop in talent that I don’t think can be schemed around.

Here are some possible solutions that might make this season bearable to watch but still ultimately unsuccessful:

Find a Center on the waiver wire.

Run the ball a whole lot

Use three step drops almost exclusively.

Defense: Kurt Warner doesn’t believe in God. He is God!

2005-08-14T18:49:00.000-07:00

Dallas is switching to a 3-4 defense this year, and they were without their most important player and biggest offseason acquisition, NT Jason Ferguson.

But that’s just looking for an excuse. There wasn’t anything to get excited about with this defense. They were solid against the run, but that was probably due to an active LB corps and a good tackling secondary.

That’s nice, but that’s it.

The DL got no push in the run or passing game.

Kurt Warner went 14-19 for a million yards against the first team.

NT La’Roi Glover plugged the middle, but got no push. He’s probably miscast as a NT, even though he’s played it before.

I’m not sure Greg Ellis played because his name wasn’t called. Actually, I know this overrated crybaby did play, and he went backwards a lot. He’s often given too much credit for his pass rushing skills by the Dallas coaches, media and fans. He gets his sacks because he has a good motor and he’ll chase a guy down. He’s the guy that picks up the coverage sacks. But he’s much too slow to be a factor on his own, and gets double-teamed much less often than he and the team claim.

I called him a crybaby because he whined about this switch to the 3-4 because he’s undersized for it.

Dallas was also without first round draft pick DL Marcus Spears. Most of the other ends and tackles played without distinction. One, rookie Jay Ratliff, did get some push from the DE spot and could be a sleeper-type player. He was a 7^th round pick, and people love Ellis, but I can see Ratliff, or other rookies Spears or Chris Canty gaining the starting DE job on the left side.

Rookie LB and #1 pick DeMarcus Ware was a big disappointment. He was OK against the run, but was nowhere in the pass rush. He was supposed to be an impact player. I don’t think he had to learn any scheme or responsibilities to be a factor on 3^rd and long. Get to the QB. He didn’t get near him.

He has a lot to learn too. There were several plays where he didn’t move his feet. He locked up with the OT and just wrestled with him. He played like he was tired.

Arizona didn’t have many (any) really big plays. They got good yardage on two plays, one that looked like busted coverage by new FS Keith Davis, and the other on a fluky diving grab on a poorly thrown ball.

Otherwise it was a lot of short passing with Warner checking his watch while looking for an open receiver. I was not unhappy with the Dallas LB’s or DB’s generally.

Uncoordinated offense

2005-08-12T19:01:00.000-07:00

The Cowboys have no offensive coordinator. It would be too easy to just go from there and say their offense is uncoordinated, but there’s more to it.

The passing game coordinator is Sean Payton. So first of all, yecchh.

The running game coordinator is OL coach Tony Sparano. No idea what kind of coach he is. He was TE coach last year. The running game coordinator the two previous years was Maurice Carthon.

The plays are called by Parcells.

If any coach other than Parcells had this setup, the press would bury him.

It doesn’t mean the offense can’t succeed, it’s just uncoordinated. For two years, the Dallas offense has consistently lacked flow, or rhythm. It’s lacked an identity, but that may have more to do with the shifting personnel.

Parcells said the other day that he doesn’t want any voices shouted down in the offensive meeting room. He said didn’t want a dictator.

He doesn’t seem to have a problem with having a defensive coordinator, but whatever.

Is an offensive coordinator necessary? Maybe not. The early 90’s Cowboys only had five different running plays. And the passing game was very much a ‘line ‘em up and out-execute the opposition’s scheme, particularly after Zampese became coordinator.

God, I hated Zampese. It was at the end of his tenure when Cowboys players said the ny Giants were calling out the pass patterns before the ball was snapped. Felipe Alou could have coordinated that offense.

But if there is any level of sophistication to your offense, I think it should have a coordinator, and he should call the plays. I can only hope that Sparano scouts the opposition and submits or suggests plays that will work well against that opposition when the game plan is being installed each week. I assume Payton does the same with the passing game.

What you end up with is a Dan Reeves style offense, where you have a bunch of plays at your disposal, filed by down and distance. I don’t know any more about Reeves’ offenses than that, but that’s what he had. What I think was left unsaid is that there is then a certain randomness to the play calling.

You have 20 plays for 2^nd and 5. Second and five comes up in the game. Pick a play. Next time pick a different one. Next time, a different one. Perhaps in the 2^nd half you come back to one that worked well, maybe from a different formation.

It’s possible, but not likely given what they’ve done the last two years, that there is a rhyme or reason to the pattern of plays. Or maybe there really is no pattern. Maybe they’re just plays.

Without the coordinator/coordination, the offense seems to lack the set up. Using one play to set up the next. Or one play to set up a later, bigger play.

I’ll admit it – like Jim Mora said, I don’t… know. Maybe there’s a play progression I just don’t see. I don’t go to their meetings. I don’t really know what they’re trying to do.

I really don’t.

Thin with fat guys: Offensive line

2005-08-10T19:13:00.000-07:00

What could be a strength, and what some think will be a strength, will probably be an abysmal failure. The Cowboys OL could be good at best, or really, really terrible.

It can only be good if five things break right. There’s a better chance all five break bad, and a very good chance at least one or more of them will:

LT Flozell Adams. He really wasn’t very good last year, after playing at Pro Bowl level in 2003. What makes anyone think last year was the aberration? He’s always had the talent, but after 7 years in the league, only one of them has been really good. THAT was the aberration. I think this breaks evenly or slightly badly.

LG Larry Allen. Suspect conditioning. Clearly unmotivated. Still effective, but hardly the player he was in the 90’s. He’s getting by on muscle memory and a huge body. I think this breaks evenly. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he suddenly decides he wants to be the best in the game again.

C Andre Gurode/Al Johnson. I covered this already. If Johnson was anything, his job wouldn’t be up for grabs with a plug like Gurode. I don’t see how this breaks well.

RG Marco Rivera. Coming off back surgery, he’s still probably the surest thing on the OL. He’ll probably be a good solid player, but doubt creeps in like this: he gets outmuscled a lot, and the coaching staff says he’s “still regaining strength in his back.” Which I will translate as, “his back is shot and he’ll never be the player he was.” 80-20 this breaks well.

RT Jacob Rogers. Just had an MRI on the shoulder that was operated on in the offseason. He’s had three shoulder operations dating back to high school. He’s only played a handful of special teams plays in the NFL. If this breaks evenly it will be like breaking huge.

If Rogers gets hurt, the roulette wheel starts spinning. Larry Allen probably goes to RT, with Steve Peterman playing LG. That might not be the worst thing to happen. Or perhaps Vollers plays RT with Peterman going in for Rivera when his back gives out.

Barring injury elsewhere on the line, the key is Adams. If he plays well, the running and passing game have a chance to do some damage. If he’s inconsistent, that’s what the offense will be too.

The band the NFL should have hired

2005-08-09T08:40:00.000-07:00

I would have just replied to my post about the Rolling Stones below, but this deserves its own post. Have you seen the bizarre Burger King commercials with the Slipknot-wannabe chicken head wearing hardcore band singing about BK's new chicken fries?

Well, they've gone over the top with it, and, umm... I'm lovin' it.

Coq Roq

Coq (French for chicken) Roq, that's the name of the band. You can download their music and get the lyrics to these commercials.

Here I come a heat-seeking missile
Breaking out with a burning sizzle
I walk the walk, I talk the talk
You'll be mine, bawk bawk, bagawwwwkkk!

I've got goosebumps.

Not only should the NFL hire this band, they should hire the marketing firm that came up with the campaign.

Rolling Stones, MNF, NFL: WTF?

2005-08-08T18:34:00.000-07:00

How does this happen -- All but one of the Ramones are dead, but all but one of the Rolling Stones are still alive. That's just not right.

Now the Stones are teaming with the NFL and ABC to provide "electrifying performances and state-of-the-art stage production."

Ffft. Shyeah.

Who...? What...what the...? Who listens to the Rolling freaking Stones any more?

Who is the musical advisor to the NFL? This is like the Super Bowl halftime shows with acts that haven't been popular in at least a decade. Must be they couldn't find another Boston band. I think Aerosmith was last year's Kickoff band. Must be The Cars were busy or couldn't stomach each other for a reunion. Or, I don't know, maybe Ric Ocasek is dead too.

Come on Tagliabue, pick up a Dropkick Murphy's CD for chrissakes.

Peter King Non-Sequitur of the Day

2005-08-08T18:26:00.000-07:00

g. Thank the Lord for the Kansas City Royals.

I get this one. To understand this one, you have to know Pete is a Red Sox fan. Then you have to know the Royals just swept the Yankees.

The Glimmer of Hope: Roy Williams

2005-08-07T18:16:00.000-07:00

From Saturday’s scrimmage report:

Williams drew a loud reaction from the crowd with a hit on running back Anthony Thomas. Williams, sometimes lining up in the box, later tackled Jones in the backfield for a five-yard loss.

"I love these new schemes," he said. "Man, I'm in the mix. I can't complain at all. I'm down there where I want to be and we're gonna make some things happen."

Not counting any potential surprise rookie, Roy Williams is the only bonafide playmaker on the Cowboys defense. He didn’t make many plays last year, but he was wasted as a free safety. This year he’ll be SS full time, and that means he’ll be near the line of scrimmage all the time.

Dude, please, make some things happen.

I think Williams is already better than Darren Woodson ever was. Neither was much in coverage, but Williams, when given the opportunity, has already shown he can blitz, and has more size and speed than Woodson did.

When I daydream defensive plays, a lot of them end with Williams shooting a gap and sticking Tiki Barber for a four yard loss. I don’t daydream that as often as daydreaming winning the lottery, but I daydream plays sometimes.

The NY Daily News is reporting that Dallas has contacted at least three teams looking for free safety help. That makes me a little queasy. I’ve never cared for Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer, and I’m afraid he’ll move Willams back there at least part time, under the guise of getting guys lined up in the right spot or some other cockamamie excuse about making the defensive calls.

Peter King's Somethingest Something

2005-08-05T19:47:00.000-07:00

A few years ago Peter King lamented why WE have to dub something the "somethingest something." Yet Pete does this routinely. Pretty much weekly, or oftener during the preseason, when his diaries appear daily at SI.com.

From August 4th:

"What did you think of 'Seabiscuit'?'' I ask.

"Haven't read it,'' Shanahan says. "Saw the movie. Really liked it.''

"You've got to read the book,'' I say. "It's better. One of the best sports books ever.''

Pete's always good for an eye roll or three. In the same column he rags on his 4-star hotel, in this case, the exercise equipment at the Westin in Denver:

And one gripe with the elliptical trainer, by the way: It's got a 15-minute limit on it. Did you know, Westinians, that you need to get 20 minutes of a 135-beat heartbeat, consecutively, four times a week, to do the right thing for your heart? Give us a 20-minute limit, at least.

Maybe they do things differently in a hotel exercise room, but how does the hotel put a governor on an elliptical trainer, and why would they? Shouldn't Pete be aggravated with the manufacturer? I suppose it is Westin's fault for buying the inferior machine.

Then again, just start the stupid thing over and quit after five more minutes. How inconvenient could that really be? Stupid 4-star hotels.

The chicken or the egg: Cornerback

2005-08-05T19:44:00.000-07:00

Hot on the heels of a press release at dallascowboys.com, the Abilene Reporter News has two stories about CB Terence Newman getting his swagger back.

Swagger, swagger, blah blah blah. I get so sick of hearing about swagger. I understand the role of confidence in sports, but isn’t confidence borne of demonstrated ability? Otherwise, isn’t it just hope?

A confident player is one who knows he can. A player that thinks he can may become confident, but will doubt himself until he actually does.

The converse must also be true. Newman didn’t lose his confidence and start playing poorly. He started playing poorly and lost his confidence Cause and effect.. If he was successful before, and thus, confident, he was unsuccessful for a period of time that made him lose confidence.

So if he’s playing well in camp, that’s great. But tell me he’s covering great. Don’t tell me he’s getting his confidence back as if that’s the thing. The play’s the thing.

Least Controversial Position: Quarterback

2005-08-04T19:45:00.000-07:00

The Dallas Morning News did a story on the backup QBs the other day, a day after the Cowboys’ own website did the same.

Hacks.

Eh, maybe that’s too harsh. As team websites go, Dallascowboys.com is pretty good. Constantly updated, and while the criticism is never harsh, they’re not too cheerleader-y over there. Unless it’s Mick Spagnola cheerleading for Chad Hutchinson, but that has entertainment value.

The DMN could do worse on their own than just copying Cowboys press releases.

The only difference in the two stories about Henson and Romo was that Henson may, or may not, be reverting back to a sidearm motion after throwing 6,000 passes this offseason.

The DMN said he was, but maybe they just misread the Cowboys.com press release, which said he wasn’t.

I didn’t think his motion was all that bad last year, but coaches love to work on technique. And in the Bears game where he played a full half, Henson’s deep passes did float. So he’s supposed to be coming over the top to get more velocity and accuracy.

All camp reports have Henson’s accuracy as lacking. No word on his velocity.

Not much was said about Romo, but does it really matter?

I expect Drew Bledsoe to play every minute of every game this year. Discounting 2001’s punctured lung as a fluke injury, he’s missed six games in his career, and three of those were as a rookie.

Not only is he extremely durable, he should be good enough to keep the backups at bay. Bledsoe would have to be an abject failure, for several weeks, before Parcells would even acknowledge there might be a problem.

There’s no reason Bledsoe shouldn’t be pretty good, other than a potentially shoddy OL. The running game should be fine, and if healthy, the receivers are good. Not great, but good.

The TE, he’s great.

Vinny Testaverde was 35 and seemingly washed up when Parcells coaxed a career year out of him in 1998 with the Jets. So at 33, it’s possible Bledsoe could do the same. He’s taken too many sacks and thrown too many interceptions lately. But he should lose less games on his own than Testaverde, and could win a lot more.

He’s probably the biggest question mark, or at least the most important question mark on this year’s team. But he’s also somewhat of a sure thing. If he has an average year, he’ll throw more TD’s than INT’s. I think this offense will suit him, and it’s more likely he’ll have an above average year than below.

Not Shocking: Gurode works with first team at Center

2005-08-02T19:25:00.000-07:00

A few years ago I was watching a college bowl game between Colorado and Oregon. I vividly remember two things. Joey Harrington couldn’t miss, and Andre Gurode was the worst offensive lineman I’d ever seen.

I suppose I’ve seen some turnstiles, or overmatched guys who were actually worse. But this was the worst performance by a supposed great player. As they announced the lineups, Brent Musberger told me in his usual overhyped way, to “watch this guy folks!” So I did. I isolated on him because I had no real rooting interest in the game, and Brent told me to.

Gurode led the team in tackles that day. Not good when you’re an offensive guard. He didn’t move anybody in the running game, and just tackled the first guy that ran into him when they passed.

After Dallas drafted him, his glowing bio made me think perhaps he just had a bad game. His rookie year, when he played some center, he didn’t play so awful, but he wasn’t good. That was Dave Campo’s last year as head coach, and the team was a mess anyway.

He’s played at about the same level the last two years. He’s a big, strong guy, and it looks like he can run some, but it doesn’t translate. In Parcells-speak (though I never saw him speak this), he has a lot of ability, but no talent.

He can block the man over him. If he has to block on the second level, he’s a step slow or takes a poor angle. If he has to slide out in pass blocking, he doesn’t. He’s never seemed very aware.

Parcells finally benched him late last season.

Now in the first week of camp he’s working ahead of Al Johnson at center. This is shocking only to those who believe what they read in the Dallas Morning News from hacks like Jean-Jacques Taylor, who in turn believes the sugar that is dumped on him by Jerry Jones, Bill Parcells, or whatever position coach, instead of actually watching the games.

If you read the DMN last year you’d think Al Johnson was a budding Pro Bowler, and the team was happy with him. Obviously neither is true if they’re even considering Gurode at center. I remember emailing a friend after the season-closing debacle against the Giants that Al Johnson should have one of those beepers that garbage trucks have because all he did all day was get backed up into Testaverde. He’d just snap the ball and throw it in reverse without even tapping the brake.

Parcells says the best way to pressure Bledsoe is up the middle.

"They're going to try and pressure Bledsoe up the middle . . . there's no doubt about that," Parcells said of where he is anticipating defenses blitzing this year. "That's where I believe the pressure is going to come from, quite a bit. I know when I played against Drew, that's what I tried to do.

Gurode is bad, Johnson is worse. Yikes.

Cowboys to stink in 2005

2005-08-01T19:10:00.000-07:00

I'm feeling very negative about this season, and it mostly stems from hearing and reading Bill Parcells' shtick. There are very few men I'd rather have coaching the Cowboys than Parcells, but I'm sick of his act. I'd rather he coach 'em up and shut up.

Hearing him play the media and talk about himself took me back to last year when he botched... well, last year.

"The draft choices, there is always a learning curve. But in my experience there are some positions (defensive line and running back) where we are trying to integrate new players which require less mental awareness and a little more physical abilities. So you can expect something there."

Unless it's Reshard Lee in 2004 and Parcells refused to play him saying he didn't know the playbook. What Parcells says, means, and does, are often different things.

Talking about Bledsoe, he said he had no choice in 2003 but to be conservative and run 35 times, implying Quincy Carter couldn't win a game with his arm. Except maybe the Panthers game, when Parcells, who calls the plays, kept calling for passes to seal the game in the 4th quarter. After which he made his famous tear-eyed "they can't call you losers any more" speech.

Or talking about learning from last year, when he continued to force things with Testaverde.

"But we just absolutely have to improve our team in many areas . . . I just feel like, this was a retrospective view, certainly, there would have been a better way to go. It might not have been ecstatically pleasing but it probably would have turned out a little better if I had done it."

Ya think? I don't want to hear about Bill Parcells learning things. He is Bill Freaking Parcells. It's like what Harv Keitel tells Matt McConaughey in U-571, "don't ever say you don't know. Skipper always knows." It shouldn't take an offseason to figure out you're doing the wrong things.

Rain, again, still

2005-06-14T05:06:00.000-07:00

Rained out last night, doubleheader tonight that is in doubt because of rain.

Bullington

2005-06-13T07:05:00.000-07:00

It rained on Sunday, delaying the game about an hour, and I had the kids, and it was just damn hot. So I didn't go see Bryan Bullington. I kinda wished I had so I could see with my own eyes if he has anything. I did hear this on the Red Wings radio broadcast from Joe Castellano, "At Ball St. Bullington reportedly threw 93, 94, 95mph, but we haven't seen anything close to that today." Emphasis his. I don't know if that means he topped out at 90 or 86. I don't know Castellano's definition of "close."

If Bullington throws 89 consistently, there's still a chance he could contribute. If he throws 86 at best? Not so much.

Statistically, he pitched well, with 7 K's and no earned runs in six innings.

I wonder if really humid days, or days where the sun comes out after a thunderstorm, affects hitting much. I was very hazy after the rain, and Rochester's Boof Bonser whiffed 13 in six innings. He's a strikeout pitcher, but that's exceptional.

Indianapolis v. Rochester -- Game 1

2005-06-12T13:26:00.000-07:00

Justin Ried against Dave Gassner, who saw time earlier this year with the Twins. Both pitchers have similar styles. Ried is a righty (Gassner a lefty) control pitcher (read: doesn't throw hard).

In this game, Ried combined the worst of Josh Fogg and Kip Wells -- low velocity and a million pitches. This is the smallest of sample sizes, one game, and an incomplete one at that. The game was delayed an hour and 40 minutes, and at 10:30 I decided my 5yo son had had enough, so I only saw five innings, and Ried was done after 4.

Here is part of Wilbur Miller's profile of Ried: "Back at Nashville for 2004 .... He dramatically improved his K rate, although he had some problems with gopher balls, allowing 18. It's possible that his improvement resulted from him finally being fully healthy. He also credited off-season conditioning that helped him increase his velocity to 89-90 consistently, topping out at 92."

I've always found the scoreboard pitch speed indicator at Frontier Field to be fair. Hard throwers throw in the 90's, junkballers in the 80's. It just jives with the velocity of those styles of pitchers.

Ried threw one pitch 87mph, a few 86, and otherwise threw his fastball mainly 84mph, with breaking stuff in the low/mid 70's. After having seen even this tiny 4-inning sample size, I'm stamping Ried a non-prospect. Major league hitters would kill him. Even the Fogg/DWilliams/Jamie Moyer-types consistently hit the high 80's. At 85mph, a professional hitter would adjust too easily, no matter how well he changed speeds.

Other random observations: Ron Paulino looks like a ballplayer. He's big but has a pretty smooth swing. His body type reminds me of Mark Johnson (one-time Pirate ST wonder), but he didn't appear as stiff as Johnson did. He did almost have a passed ball (he dropped it but the runner did not advance). Otherwise caught without distinction, good or bad.

Nate McLouth is small. He homered after I left, but I wouldn't have guessed he would. He's very narrow all the way from the neck to the knees. I know it's bat speed, not muscle that produces power, but he just doesn't look like he can generate all that much power. In NFL draft-speak, his frame doesn't look like it will accommodate much more bulk. Think pre-steroids Len Dykstra. Mid-80's Dykstra had a little pop and was a good player. I think McLouth has a future, but I doubt he'll be a 20 HR guy, ever.

Or maybe he'll become Don Mattingly. Note Dykstra and Mattingly are both listed as 5-10, 185, McLouth 5-11, 174.

His swing was also smooth. For a good study of swing mechanics, see batspeed.com. I'm not an expert, but I have studied swing mechanics, and am geeky enough that I've taped games and watched swings frame-by-frame. He and Duffy have good arms.

Brad Eldred did not play.

The Bottom Line

2004-09-09T19:19:00.000-07:00

When you reach the bottom line, the only thing to do is climb. -- Big Audio Dynamite

Likes:
The Cowboys -- obviously.
Dogfish Head Chicory Stout -- Smooth, sublime.
Dr. Z (Paul Zimmerman) -- when he's all business.
Dislikes:
Ray Lewis -- accessory to double murder.
Fantasy football -- been there, done that; it takes away from my enjoyment of the game.
Every pizza place in the Greater Rochester area -- God forbid they put garlic in the sauce.
Peter King -- superficial sap.
TMQ -- Ponderous.
Hates:
Eagles, Redskins -- obviously.
A 3-man rush on 3rd and 17 -- gives the offense time to run an 18 yard pattern.
Announcers -- pretty much all of them, but especially the blind ones and shout-without-saying-anything ones.